Washington — According to a recent survey of top economists, a new wave of technological progress, led by artificial intelligence (AI), along with strong capital markets and low energy costs, should help the United States stay the world's most productive economy.
Productivity growth in the US has been going up a lot. Estimates say it will go up by 10% from 2019 to 2024. The quick adoption of new technologies, especially digital and AI technologies, as well as the movement of workers during the COVID-19 pandemic, have caused this rise.
Jumana Saleheen, who is in charge of Vanguard's investment strategy group in Europe, said that the US has a good chance of getting ahead of other developed countries because of its "dynamic capital markets, flexible labor force, and leadership in emerging technologies." She did, however, say that Europe could fall even further behind because there isn't enough money going into research and development and new ideas, especially in traditional fields like cars and drugs. This is made worse by infrastructure that isn't linked up and job markets that are too strict.
This year, the US is expected to grow the fastest of all the G7 countries. This is because there has been a boom in tech-related investments and the stock market has been going up, which has made people richer and able to spend more. This growth has helped the economy deal with some of the bad effects of trade tensions and policy uncertainty, but people are still worried about possible AI bubbles and too much investment.
The CEO of the Centre for Economics and Business Research, Nina Skero, said that AI and other digital technologies are the "new productivity frontier." She said that the US's leadership in AI investment and development will probably keep it ahead in productivity for a long time.
Data shows that businesses are spending a lot more money now than they were before the pandemic in 2019. For example, US companies spent 24% more in the second quarter of 2025 than they did in 2019. Investment in the Eurozone, on the other hand, fell by 7%, which means that people are taking longer to adopt and use new technologies.
Some economists, on the other hand, think that this sudden rise in AI investment could be a "bubble." This makes people worry that if the market gets too hot or investments don't pay off as expected, it could lead to a sharp correction that would hurt US output and productivity.
Experts all agree that the US is still ahead, but Asian economies, especially China, are becoming more competitive, especially in AI. OECD data shows that China has invested more venture capital in AI since 2012 than any other country except the US. They are more than three times as big as those in the EU.
David Owen, the chief economist at Saltmarsh Economics, said, "A lot of the AI progress in the US is because of early-stage innovation, but other countries are catching up." "The risk is that a lot of the money might not be spent wisely, and the benefits might go to users in other places instead of early innovators."
People are also worried that US trade protectionism, strict immigration rules, budget deficits, and political instability could slow down or even reverse long-term gains in productivity.
Most economists agree that the US is still in a good position to keep its productivity edge, even with these problems.
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